Live tennis betting at this year’s US Open offers you a dynamic way to engage with the tournament, as top players battle it out in Queens. Knowing the favorites and understanding how odds shift during matches can help you decide whether it’s smarter to place your bets before the tournament begins or react in real time as the action unfolds.
The 2025 US Open marks the 145th edition of the iconic Grand Slam in New York and, as always, will see the best players in the world descend on the Big Apple in an attempt to claim tennis’s second oldest major. So, what should you expect in Queens during the year’s final Grand Slam—and more importantly, how should you bet?
The Favorites for Glory at Flushing Meadows
Checking the latest odds is always a useful place to begin when sizing up the tournament. In this instance, if you bet on the outright market, you’ll find Jannik Sinner leading the men’s field at +130, while Aryna Sabalenka heads the women’s odds at +230.
These prices are more than justified, as these two players are reigning champions. Now, let’s take a closer look at how the outright market works.
Playing the Long Game in the Outright Market
The outright market is a long-term bet that gives you the best chances of finding value if you place it before the tournament begins.
The reality is that as heavily tipped players advance through the tournament, their odds begin to shorten. In other words, the closer they get to the final, the fewer hurdles they have to clear — and the higher the probability of them lifting the trophy.
The Big Three
This trend was particularly true during the era of the Big Three — Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, and Novak Djokovic — who won a staggering 66 Grand Slam titles between them. From 2005 to 2020 alone, only four other men managed to win a major. To put that in perspective, the Big Three claimed 56 out of 60 available Grand Slams during that stretch.
As the saying goes, the more things change, the more they stay the same. This familiar pattern is unfolding again, with Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner — widely seen as the heirs to the throne — having won the last six majors between them and poised to define the next era of men’s tennis.
In short, tennis is a sport where dominance often comes in waves. From a betting perspective, when one or two players begin to separate themselves from the field, it creates a narrow window of opportunity to find genuine value in the outright market.
However, while tennis might seem predictable from a distance, it’s anything but once play begins — and that’s exactly where the live betting market comes into its own.
The Here and Now of Live Betting
The best way to think about live betting is that it allows you to capitalize on the natural volatility of tennis as it focuses on the games within the game.
While the better player may ultimately win the war, they won’t necessarily win every battle along the way.
For example, imagine a player who’s the clear favourite but struggles with their serve early in the match as they attempt to find their range. They might face multiple break points or double faults, which could make their odds drift higher even if they eventually recover and win.
Alcaraz Made to Sweat in the London Heat
This happened to Carlos Alcaraz at Wimbledon during his first match of the 2025 tournament when he went head-to-head with 38-year-old Fabio Fognini.
On paper, it looked like a walkover, but the Italian managed to win the second and fourth sets, forcing the Spaniard into a fifth, making Alcaraz the first defending champion in 15 years to go the distance in his opening match at Wimbledon.
In the end, the world number one found a way to see off the world number 138, but not without surviving a real scare on Centre Court.
To the point, if you were following the action live, you’d have seen just how much opportunity that opened up in the in-play market given the generous odds on Fognini winning a set —a bet you might never have considered when browsing the pre-match markets.
You might say this kind of match highlights two things: the romance of tennis and why live betting has become one of the sport’s most popular markets.
Looking ahead, the key to deciding which bet to place during this year’s US Open often comes down to one simple factor: how much time you can dedicate to following the action.
Value Comes to Those Who Wait
Unlike sports with a fixed time limit, tennis matches can stretch over several hours, especially at Grand Slams, where men’s matches are best of five sets.
This creates multiple momentum shifts and betting windows throughout the match. But while not everyone has five hours to spare on a Tuesday in September, if you’re tuned into the action and tracking the ebb and flow, live betting at the US Open offers you a chance to find value in a sport where it’s not always easy to identify.
